Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derek CarrPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Raiders vs. Broncos
Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 259.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 259.5 (-110) after it opened @ 272.5 (-130).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Derek Carr has attempted 37.0 throws per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 87th percentile among quarterbacks.
- Derek Carr has been among the top QBs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 262.0 yards per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile.
- The Denver Broncos defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.99 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.
- Derek Carr’s passing accuracy has diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.2% to 61.2%.
- Opposing teams have passed for the 6th-least yards in the NFL (just 212.0 per game) against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-lowest rate in the league against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season (65.2%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
294
Passing Yards
294
Passing Yards
