Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Javonte WilliamsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Raiders vs. Broncos
Right now, Javonte Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-115) after it opened @ 51.5 (-115).
Pros
- Javonte Williams has been given 49.3% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
- Javonte Williams has averaged 51.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the league among RBs (82nd percentile).
- Javonte Williams has been among the leading RBs in the NFL at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging a terrific 3.57 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 76th percentile.
- The Las Vegas Raiders defensive tackles grade out as the 2nd-worst collection of DTs in football since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
Cons
- The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 10th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 38.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Denver Broncos have run the 10th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a measly 58.4 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Rushing Yards
48
Rushing Yards
