Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Davis MillsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Texans vs. Chargers
Right now, Davis Mills’s passing yards prop is set at 234.5 yards (+104/-142).
The public has bet the OVER up to 234.5 (+104) after it opened @ 217.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Texans are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Cons
- The Houston Texans have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 56.6 plays per game.
- The Houston Texans offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
- Davis Mills’s throwing accuracy has declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.1% to 59.4%.
- Davis Mills has been among the least efficient passers in the league this year, averaging a mere 6.19 yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 19th percentile.
- The Houston Texans offensive line has given their QB a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
283
Passing Yards
283
Passing Yards
