Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for DK Metcalf from EV Insight

DK MetcalfReceiving Yards

Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-108/-127).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-127) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).

Pros

The Seahawks are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to earn 9.2 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.

Cons

The Seattle Seahawks offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.
DK Metcalf’s receiving effectiveness has tailed off this season, totaling a measly 5.75 yards-per-target vs a 7.97 figure last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have utilized motion in their offense on 28.2% of their plays since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

Projection

THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards