Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Noah FantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Lions vs. Seahawks
Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (+100/-122).
The public has bet the OVER up to 25.5 (+100) after it opened @ 24.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to total 4.3 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among TEs.
Cons
- Noah Fant has been much less involved in his offense’s pass game this year (10.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (18.5%).
- The Seattle Seahawks offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.
- Noah Fant’s pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this year, compiling a measly 5.30 yards-per-target vs a 7.41 figure last year.
- The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Seattle Seahawks have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
