Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mike Gesicki from EV Insight

Mike GesickiReceiving Yards

Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (+110/-140).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 21.5 (-140) after it opened @ 21.5 (-115).

Pros

The Dolphins are a 4-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The Dolphins rank as the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 68.5% pass rate.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the NFL.
Mike Gesicki has accumulated a monstrous 49.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among TEs.
Mike Gesicki has been among the best TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 39.0 yards per game while ranking in the 88th percentile.

Cons

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Mike Gesicki’s 12.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 42.4.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.
Mike Gesicki has been among the bottom tight ends in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.05 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 6th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards