Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Geno Smith from EV Insight

Geno SmithPassing Yards

Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 245.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 245.5 (-110) after it opened @ 240.5 (-115).

Pros

The Seahawks are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Geno Smith’s passing accuracy has gotten better this season, with his Completion% increasing from 68.8% to 77.2%.

Cons

The Seattle Seahawks offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have utilized motion in their offense on 28.2% of their plays since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

Projection

THE BLITZ
297
Passing Yards