NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
Chase EdmondsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Bengals vs. Dolphins
Right now, Chase Edmonds’s rushing yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 32.5 (-110) after it opened @ 32.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- Chase Edmonds has been given 41.8% of his offense’s carries this year, placing him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
- The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers rank as the 8th-worst collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
- The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on just 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.
Cons
- The Dolphins are a 4-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- The Dolphins rank as the 6th-least run-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 31.5% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
- Chase Edmonds’s running effectiveness has tailed off this year, accumulating just 3.34 yards-per-carry vs a 5.32 rate last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
40
Rushing Yards
40
Rushing Yards
