Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
George KittleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Broncos vs. 49ers
Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to notch 6.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
- George Kittle has been a big part of his team’s passing offense, posting a Target Share of 22.7% since the start of last season, which places him in the 98th percentile among TEs.
- George Kittle has compiled a monstrous 58.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile among tight ends.
- The San Francisco 49ers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.
- George Kittle has been among the best TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 51.0 yards per game while checking in at the 94th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 116.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 61.5 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
- The Denver Broncos defense has yielded the 8th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 39.0) to tight ends since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards
50
Receiving Yards
