Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Commanders vs. Eagles
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 75.5 (-115) after it opened @ 72.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to earn 7.3 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among wide receivers.
- A.J. Brown has accumulated a whopping 97.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among wide receivers.
- A.J. Brown’s 72.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 98th percentile for wideouts.
- The Philadelphia Eagles O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Cons
- The Eagles are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 47.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards
64
Receiving Yards
