Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Dolphins vs. Bills
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 77.5 yards (-127/-108).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 77.5 (-127) after it opened @ 72.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Dolphins are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have run the 9th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 63.9 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to accrue 9.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among WRs.
- Tyreek Hill has been an integral part of his team’s passing offense, posting a Target Share of 27.1% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 119.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
- The Miami Dolphins O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has given up the least receiving yards per game in football (just 114.0) vs. WRs since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Receiving Yards
72
Receiving Yards
