Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Leonard FournetteRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Buccaneers vs. Packers
Right now, Leonard Fournette’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 70.5 (-110) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 65.6 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to accumulate 17.1 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
- Leonard Fournette has been a more important option in his team’s running game this year (81.8% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (66.0%).
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
- Leonard Fournette has picked up 65.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in football among RBs (96th percentile).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 36.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 59.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Green Bay Packers linebackers grade out as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards
76
Rushing Yards
