Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Aaron JonesRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Buccaneers vs. Packers
Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (+115/-150).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 52.5 (-150) after it opened @ 55.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
- Aaron Jones has averaged 54.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in the league among RBs (84th percentile).
- Aaron Jones’s rushing efficiency has gotten a boost this season, totaling 8.58 yards-per-carry vs a measly 4.69 rate last season.
- Aaron Jones has been more successful in grinding out extra rushing yardage this season, totaling 5.35 yards-after-contact vs a 3.18 figure last season.
- The Green Bay Packers have used some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the league), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 5th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 37.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Aaron Jones has been much less involved in his team’s run game this season (37.8% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (49.9%).
- Opposing teams have run for the 2nd-least yards in football (just 90 per game) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties grade out as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Rushing Yards
44
Rushing Yards
