Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Drake LondonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Seahawks vs. Falcons
Right now, Drake London’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 54.5 (-115) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).
Pros
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Drake London to accrue 7.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.
- The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has struggled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.26 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-most in football.
- The Seattle Seahawks safeties profile as the 4th-worst safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 4th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 118.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 59.0 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Drake London to be much less involved in his offense’s passing offense this week (27.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (32.1% in games he has played).
- The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards
58
Receiving Yards
