Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cordarrelle PattersonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Seahawks vs. Falcons
Right now, Cordarrelle Patterson’s rushing yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-105/-139).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 45.5 (-105) after it opened @ 41.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 5th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Cordarrelle Patterson to earn 12.8 carries in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among running backs.
- Cordarrelle Patterson has been a much bigger part of his team’s rushing attack this year (56.4% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (45.4%).
- Cordarrelle Patterson’s rushing effectiveness has been refined this season, notching 5.40 yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.92 figure last season.
- The Atlanta Falcons have used some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in football), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 118.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 59.0 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Seattle Seahawks defense boasts the 5th-best efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, conceding just 4.06 yards-per-carry.
- The Seattle Seahawks defensive tackles project as the best group of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Rushing Yards
55
Rushing Yards
