Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Bills vs. Titans
Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 32.5 (-110) after it opened @ 31.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 68.0% pass rate.
- The Buffalo Bills have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 65.3 plays per game.
- The Buffalo Bills have played in the most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should lead to higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved pass game efficiency when facing better conditions in this game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
- Dawson Knox has run a route on 82.9% of his team’s dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 95th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- The Bills are a big 10-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- The Tennessee Titans defense has yielded the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 37.0) versus tight ends since the start of last season.
- The Tennessee Titans pass defense has given up the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.9%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (64.9%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards
34
Receiving Yards
