Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Devin SingletaryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Bills vs. Titans
Right now, Devin Singletary’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 48.5 (-120) after it opened @ 45.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bills are a big 10-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- The Buffalo Bills have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 65.3 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Devin Singletary has generated 46.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the NFL among RBs (78th percentile).
- Devin Singletary’s ground effectiveness (4.71 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league since the start of last season (82nd percentile among running backs).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-least run-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 32.0% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have played in the most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should lead to higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved pass game efficiency when facing better conditions in this game.
- THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to be a much smaller part of his team’s rushing attack this week (35.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (49.6% in games he has played).
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 3rd-least yards in the NFL (just 94 per game) against the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
41
Rushing Yards
41
Rushing Yards
