Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Deebo Samuel from EV Insight

Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards

Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 46.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-115).

Pros

Opposing QBs have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to total 6.3 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile among WRs.
Deebo Samuel has been an integral part of his team’s pass game, garnering a Target Share of 26.0% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 94th percentile among WRs.
Deebo Samuel has put up a colossal 63.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 75th percentile among wide receivers.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Cons

The 49ers are a big 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 44.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 120.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 8th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 60.8 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Projection

THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards