Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Michael PittmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Jaguars vs. Colts
Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 60.5 (-115) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Michael Pittman has run a route on 96.4% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 98th percentile among WRs.
- THE BLITZ projects Michael Pittman to accrue 9.0 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks project as the 7th-worst CB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Colts are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 9th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 56.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have played in the 9th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to lead to reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this week’s game.
- The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards
79
Receiving Yards
