Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Matt RyanPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Jaguars vs. Colts
Right now, Matt Ryan’s passing yards prop is set at 226.5 yards (+100/-137).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 226.5 (-137) after it opened @ 239.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Matt Ryan has been among the leading passers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 242.0 yards per game while grading out in the 78th percentile.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the highest rate in football vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season (74.2%).
- The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has displayed bad efficiency since the start of last season, giving up 8.23 yards-per-target: the 6th-most in the NFL.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks project as the 7th-worst group of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Cons
- The Colts are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 8th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have played in the 9th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to lead to reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this week’s game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the NFL.
- Matt Ryan’s passing precision has declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 66.8% to 63.3%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
231
Passing Yards
231
Passing Yards
