Browns vs. Chiefs Week 1 Betting Odds, Picks, and Trends

Arguably the most anticipated matchup of week one is the AFC Divisional Round rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Cleveland Browns. Both teams are expected to finish at the top of the AFC this season, with the Chiefs at number one and the Browns at seven in the FTN Power Rankings.

For the Chiefs, they come into 2021 with a revamped offense in front of Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and the rest of the crew. On the Browns side, Baker Mayfield will try to take the next step and lead the Browns even deeper into the playoffs.

Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs Week 1 Odds

Date/Time: September 12, 4:25 p.m. ET

Arena: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

How to watch: CBS

Opening odds: Chiefs -6.5 | O/U 54.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Latest Browns – Chiefs Odds

Looking for the most recent odds for this matchup? Here they are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Chiefs: -6.5
Total: 54.5

Opening Odds – Browns vs. Chiefs

This game opened at chiefs -6.5, and the line remains the same for now. Despite the Browns making their playoff matchup interesting last season, oddsmakers believe the Chiefs have the edge in this matchup by about a touchdown. Both of these teams made it through the preseason relatively healthy, so both teams should be at full strength when they match up on Sunday.

Quarterback Analysis – Patrick Mahomes vs. Baker Mayfield

What is there to say about Patrick Mahomes? Since becoming the full-time starter in 2018, he has arguably been the most dominant quarterback in the league. His passer rating of 108.1 was the 3rd best mark in the league in 2018, and he did it behind an offensive line that allowed the 5th highest percentage of hurries in the league (per FTNData). Now, Mahomes will get to play behind a totally revamped offensive line, and the Chiefs may be even more dangerous on offense than last year.

For the Browns, Baker Mayfield has become an extremely reliable option at the quarterback position. While his numbers won’t wow you, his 26 touchdowns to just 8 interceptions meant that Baker trusted the rest of his offense and refused to be the reason Browns lose games. In 2021, he’ll try to take another step forward and prove he deserves to be the next young QB that gets paid.

Latest Chiefs Betting News & Info

While the Chiefs remained relatively healthy throughout the preseason, it is certainly worth monitoring Clyde Edwards-Helaire and his recovery from a minor ankle injury. He is expected to play in week one, and if he does, he hopes to become the elite playmaker the Chiefs believed he was when they drafted him in round one of the 2020 NFL Draft. Regardless of Clyde’s status, a healthy Patrick Mahomes is the key to a successful 2021 for the Chiefs. He clearly was not 100% by the end of the playoffs last season, and it showed in the Superbowl against the Buccaneers. While it is hard to improve on last year’s 14-2 record, a 100% healthy Mahomes makes it possible.

Latest Browns Betting News & Info

Despite reaching the playoffs, the Browns were just 6-10 against the spread in 2020. That likely won’t lead to a ton of confidence in this battle vs the mighty Chiefs. However, something that should get Browns bettors excited is their 72.4% adjusted completion percentage against last season, which was 4th best in the league. While it is impossible to totally stop Patrick Mahomes, the Browns defense is arguably equipped to do so.

On offense, the guy to keep an eye on for the Browns is Odell Beckham Jr. He is expected to be 100% in week one, but it will be his first live-action since tearing his ACL a year ago. If Odell comes back at the level he played while in New York, the Browns’ offense might go from really good to downright scary.

Chiefs vs. Browns Betting Picks – NFL Week 1

FTN’s Matt Freedman likes the Chiefs here, and I am going to agree with him. Per Freedman, “HC Andy Reid is 6-2 ATS in Week 1 since joining the Chiefs eight years ago, and that’s not a fluke: He regularly starts the season hot. In Weeks 1-4, Reid is 22-10 ATS with the Chiefs. And QB Patrick Mahomes is 31-21-2 ATS for his career and 10-2 ATS in Weeks 1-4.” You should expect a high-scoring game here, but ultimately, expect the Chiefs to win the game and cover the spread.

FTNBets best bets

Spread: KC -6.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: O54.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

For more information, betting picks, and analysis, check out the FTN NFL Bet Tracker.

How To Bet On This Game

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