Best prop bets for UFC 264

We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC 264 in Las Vegas. As with every Conor McGregor fight week, there is some extra buzz in the air as all eyes will be on the trilogy fight with Dustin Poirier Saturday evening. There are a couple spots that I feel good about in the props market but be sure to check out the rest of the FTN crew’s bets FTN Bets Tracker in case we add anything prior to fight night.

As always, I will give the bets that I have placed below based on where I see the most value in the betting odds and how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA betting Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday. 

UFC 264 Props – Best Betting Picks

Here is a look at my favorite betting props for this weekend’s UFC 264 betting card.

Sean O’Malley to win by KO/TKO in Round 1 +160 (1x to win 1.6x)

O’Malley was originally supposed to fight Louis Smolka this week, but Kris Moutinho is stepping up on short notice to replace him and make his UFC debut. This is a layup fight for O’Malley to book another highlight reel knockout. Moutinho is a bum who was knocked out twice on the regional scene and is no match for someone as talented as O’Malley. Any plus money on this one is a fine bet in my opinion. 

Ryan Hall to win by Submission +650 (.5x to win 3.25x)

I broke this fight down in more depth in my breakdown article on FTN Daily. Hall is clearly the toughest test to date for Ilia Topuria and one of the most dangerous grapplers in the UFC. Topuria is an undefeated prospect and a black belt himself so may not give Hall the respect he deserves in terms of the grappling. This should give Hall multiple opportunities to go for his patented heel hook. Number was +800 briefly on FanDuel, but I did not get it in time but still think there is value here. 

Conor McGregor to win by KO/TKO in Round 1 +470 (1x to win 4.7x)

Full disclosure, I bet this at a worse number at +390 on FanDuel. I may add more come Saturday. Love him or hate him, McGregor is one of the best strikers in the UFC and most of his win condition comes inside the first round. I bet this at half the number last time around so it would be foolish not to reup considering not much has changed since. That was not the best version of McGregor in the first fight, and he still showed he was able to land some big shots early in the first round. The best way to bet McGregor this week is by first- or second-round knockout but significantly prefer the first round as his most likely path to victory.