Tipico Tips: John Deere Classic bets

This week, the PGA Tour heads to a familiar stop in Silvis, Ill., for the John Deere Classic, which is played at TPC Deere Run. There is nothing that special about the course, but because of how easy it plays overall, golfers will lose out on precious birdie opportunities if they are not playing from the fairway and hitting a high number of greens. The rough itself is not overly penal, it is just harder for golfers to stick it close compared to their competition flipping in wedges from the fairway. This is another of the PGA Tour’s weaker fields and will be a great opportunity for a new winner as a majority of the world’s best golfers have jumped over to Europe to begin prepping for next week’s Open. 

Let’s check out some of the best bets for this event on Tipico Sportsbook.

Outright winner | Harold Varner III +6000

Every time I bet on Varner, I get the same numb feeling — the talent is there, but he has yet to cross the finish line on the PGA Tour. A lot of golfers “aren’t winners” until they are, so that in and of itself doesn’t scare me away from betting on Varner, but how poorly he’s played in final rounds when near the lead is in the back of my mind. That said, this week at TPC Deere Run should set up perfectly for him, and it’s one of the weaker fields he would have to contend with on the schedule. Even before running course fit adjustments, I liked where he was sitting in the field compared to the early markets. The recent form leaves a lot to be desired but signs of life with the irons have been present this season, while the OTT game has been consistent enough and offer up plenty of looks at Deere Run. His underlying talent ratings props him up a bit in this field and hopefully that comes through. 

Matchup | Alex Noren -120 vs. Seamus Power (tie is loss)

I believe the market is quite smitten with Power’s form, and I can’t completely dismiss it, but I’m more impressed with Noren. His underlying long-term talent level is superior to Power’s and the form, although perhaps not quite the same finish positions, has been better after adjusting for field strength. Both golfers have been relying on a bit of short game magic to help boost along their performances, which is fine, but this is another reason I lean toward Noren sustaining this run over Power. Although not a prolific ball striker, Noren has shown long term consistency to however at least around field average, whereas Power can tend to disappear. Perhaps he has found something that has stuck, and his overall talent is improving but I currently make Noren closer to a -132 favorite in this matchup. 

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