Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC 264 in Las Vegas. To nobody’s surprise, there is extra buzz in the air this week, as there is with any Conor McGregor fight card. McGregor will face off against Dustin Poirier in the highly anticipated trilogy fight where the winner is sure to face Charles Oliveira in a title shot. As always, I give my analysis and DraftKings strategy based on how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA DFS Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday.
DraftKings UFC DFS Picks
Here are my picks for each fight on DraftKings for MMA DFS ahead of this weekend’s UFC 264 card.
Alen Amedovski vs. Yaozong Hu
Amedovski, -135; Hu, +115
Amedovski is coming off nearly a two-year layoff since getting knocked out by John Phillips in September of 2019. Prior to coming over to the UFC, he was an 8-0 prospect, with all eight wins coming by knockout inside the first nine minutes. He is now 0-2 in the UFC after dropping a decision to Krzysztof Jotko where he was dominated in the grappling realm and getting knocked out in the first-round to Phillips after. It is difficult to know if we will see any improvements from Amedovski, but I would be surprised if he was not the same or even a lesser version of the same fighter. He does have some good hands and power but relies on landing something big early as he is not a good minute winner, and his cardio is a concern as well. Yaozong is coming off a decision loss to Rashad Coulter his last time out in 2018. He is just 3-2 professionally and is coming off a USADA suspension as well. Despite the concerning suspension and long layoff, I still expect to see more improvements from the much younger Yaozong, who has been training at the UFC performance institute in China for the past year. He is not a great fighter himself and is extremely hittable. However, he has shown very good durability which may be the minimum skill needed to beat Amedovski. Additionally, his offensive weapons are decent as he will throw many leg kicks, can work the body well and bully his opponents against the cage and in the clinch. I also would favor his cardio to Amedovski and think he takes over as the fight goes on outside of brief big shots landed by Amedovski. Yaozong by decision is the official pick and he is a decent salary saver this week on DraftKings as he should be able to bank some control time to go along with his volume on the feet.
Zhalgas Zhumagulov vs. Jerome Rivera
Zhumagulov, -350; Rivera, +290
Zhumagulov is coming off a decision loss to Amir Albazi in January and is now 0-2 in the UFC. He came into the UFC with a lot of hype from the regional scene and for his ties to Khabib Nurmagomedov and the Russian wrestling scene. Despite the hype coming into the UFC, the results have not materialized yet for Zhumagulov. To his credit, he fought two respectable flyweights in Raulian Paiva and Amir Albazi and was competitive in both. Meanwhile, Rivera is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Ode Osbourne in February and is now 0-3 in the UFC and I am a bit surprised to see him get another opportunity here. Rivera is a former Dana White’s Contender Series winner, and many people did not think he should have won that fight either. Since then, he has been largely dominated in the UFC. He is tall and lanky and has some decent grappling skills, but his takedown defense is a major concern as he is way too comfortable to lose minutes fishing for submissions off his back. His striking is not terrible, but he does not maintain distance well and fails to use his length and reach advantage in many of his fights. I expect the striking exchanges to be competitive as Zhumagulov should have a big power advantage but is very hittable on the feet. However, it is the wrestling advantage that is too much for me to overlook in this matchup. Zhumagulov should be able to close distance and land big shots which will open up his takedown attempts and he will be able to control Rivera on the mat. I still think Zhumagulov is overrated in general, but this is a tailored matchup for him to showcase his wrestling skills. Zhumagulov by decision is the official pick and he is one of the safest expensive options this week with wrestling upside.
Brad Tavares vs. Omari Akhmedov
Tavares, -155; Akhmedov, +135
Tavares is coming off a decision victory over Antonio Carlos Jr. in January. He is a well-rounded fighter with skills everywhere and really has only lost to the elite of this division mostly. It is tough for me to gauge exactly where Tavares is in terms of his skillset as he typically handles the lower tier levels of competition but cannot seem to reach that next level. He is a good striker but rarely blows people away as he is very patient and does not throw a ton of volume. He has solid takedown defense and grappling as well. His biggest issue is his durability as he has been knocked out three times and it is clear that elite strikers can out point him on the feet as well. Akhmedov is coming off a second-round submission victory over Tom Breese in January. Akhmedov is a low-volume power striker with decent wrestling and grappling chops. He averages 2.63 takedowns per 15 minutes, but I would be surprised if he was repeatedly able to land takedowns against Tavares. Additionally, his cardio is a major concern as he tends to gas hard after the initial five to seven minutes. He will need to land takedowns or land some big shots on the feet, and I am not convinced he will be able to do so against someone as experienced and well-rounded as Tavares. Tavares by decision is the official pick but this fight is mostly a pass for me on DraftKings, as I do not expect the winner to score well.
Jennifer Maia vs. Jessica Eye
Maia, -200; Eye, +170
Maia is coming off a title shot loss to Valentina Shevchenko her last time out in November. She won a round against Shevchenko and even landed a takedown, which was impressive and surprised most people. If Maia can consistently be aggressive landing takedowns, then she should roll in this matchup. However, she rarely looks to wrestle despite being a black belt in BJJ as that was her first takedown landed in the UFC. She could land them at will in this matchup against Eye, as she only defends takedowns at 57% in the UFC. But I expect this to be primarily a boxing match as I do not expect Maia to wrestle and would even favor her slightly on the feet, but this line seems a little wide. I am expecting a close competitive decision where the winner does not score well so this fight is a total pass for me on DraftKings. Maia by split-decision is the official pick.
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Trevin Giles
Du Plessis, -115; Giles, -105
Du Plessis is coming off a first-round knockout over Markus Perez in his UFC debut in October. He comes from a kickboxing background but is a decent submission grappler as well. All 15 of his career wins have come inside the distance and he has never had a fight go to the judges’ scorecards. He will throw many leg kicks and has a high defensive guard but is mainly waiting to land one of his powerful hooks. I do see some holes in his game and feel like there are many people that can take advantage of it at the UFC level. His opponent, Giles, might not be one of those people. Giles is coming off a decision win over Roman Dolidze in March where he displayed some of the worst fight IQ I have ever witnessed. Giles is talented but the fight IQ and cardio concerns make him one of the more frustrating fighters to confidently back. He is a sharp boxer with fast hands and should have a ton of success landing his jab on Du Plessis. However, another problem with Giles is just that he never puts his foot on the gas and is content to sit at range and land a few jabs which make fights much closer than they need to be. Additionally, he willingly engages in the grappling which causes him to gas out faster and he may be the worse grappler of the two in this matchup. Giles is the better fighter, but I cannot trust him to do the right thing here and Du Plessis may be able to just do more to win rounds along with having more endurance for three rounds if it goes that long. Du Plessis by submission is the official pick but this is not a confident lean for me either way. Du Plessis clearly has more upside for DraftKings though.
Ilia Topuria vs. Ryan Hall
Topuria, -230; Hall, +190
Topuria is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Damon Jackson his last time out in December. He is 2-0 in the UFC and 10-0 professionally with eight of his 10 wins coming inside the first round. He is an exciting prospect with a good wrestling base and holds a black belt in BJJ with seven career submission victories. He also has legitimate power on the feet and his boxing is improving each time out. The future is bright for him no doubt, but this is clearly his toughest test to date in Hall, who is coming off a decision victory over Darren Elkins his last time out in July of 2019. He is 4-0 in the UFC, and nobody has been able to crack the code yet in the octagon. Hall is unorthodox with his grappling but is legitimately one of the most dangerous submission grapplers in the sport. Everyone he faces is so scared to go to the ground with him that it really messes with their game plan. On the feet, Hall is looking to force any grappling exchange by pulling guard, flopping to his back or using imanari rolls repeatedly looking to snatch up his patented heel hook. Because his opponents are so worried about the grappling threat, it opens up opportunities for his diverse kicking attack. Hall’s striking has improved over the years from training with guys like Stephen Thompson and the Zahabi brothers at Tristar. Many people do not like his fighting style, but it is extremely difficult for opponents to look good against him and I am not remotely convinced that an exciting but still unproven prospect will be the first to solve the puzzle. I expect him to engage in the grappling whether he wants to or not and I favor Hall in that realm. Additionally, on the feet it is so tough to get into boxing range which Topuria needs to fight his style. Because Hall makes it so difficult for his opponents to land damage and with him having a grappling edge along with likely landing more strikes on the feet, I favor him to win this fight. Hall by submission is the official pick but also would not be surprised by a decision where many people are split on who should win each round due to the weird dynamic of Hall fights. This is a good fight to target on DraftKings as Hall has submission upside in a win and Topuria can bank some control time if he avoids getting submitted.
Michel Pereira vs. Niko Price
Pereira, -155; Price, +135
Pereira is coming off a decision win over Khaos Williams in December and is now on a two-fight win streak. Pereira is always dangerous and looking to put on a show for the fans even if that means not fighting an optimal strategy. We did however see a more focused version of Pereira last time out as he fought a smart game plan and implemented his wrestling more than we have seen in the past. He is extremely powerful on the feet and holds a black belt in BJJ as well. Price is coming off a decision victory over Donald Cerrone in September which was changed to a no contest after a failed drug test due to marijuana (lol). Price is similar to Pereira in a sense in that he is an opportunistic finisher who is capable of winning by knockout or by using his submission grappling. Price is not a good minute winner and relies on big moments and finishes. Additionally, I would favor the durability of Pereira as Price has been knocked out three times in his career and Pereira hits harder as well. In a fight that I expect to be a banger for as long as it lasts, I favor Pereira due to the power and durability along with the potential to land takedowns and bank control time as well. This is a good fight to target as I expect to see a finish and the winner should score well. Pereira by knockout is the official pick.
Max Griffin vs. Carlos Condit
Griffin, -190; Condit, +165
Griffin is coming off a first-round knockout over Kenan Song his last time out in March. Griffin is a well-rounded fighter with an underwhelming career so far in the UFC. I say that because he is a talented fighter but has historically dealt with cardio issues and poor fight IQ which caused him to lose some fights that he should have won. He is now on a two-fight win streak though and nine of his 17 career wins have come by knockout. He only averages 1.7 takedowns per 15 minutes but has shown a willingness to wrestle more when he has an advantage, and he should in this matchup. Condit is coming off a decision victory over Matt Brown and now has back-to-back wins after a five-fight losing streak. Condit is a legend in the fight game and is only two years older than Griffin but seems much older in terms of fight years. He has been in some wars and has taken a ton of damage over the course of his career. Griffin should have him covered pretty much everywhere aside from the fight IQ and cardio concerns. Regardless, I have to favor him in this matchup and think he has some significant takedown upside in this matchup making him a solid DraftKings option this week.
Sean O’Malley vs. Kris Moutinho
O’Malley, -800; Moutinho, +550
O’Malley is coming off a third-round knockout victory over Thomas Almeida in March. He is 13-1 professionally (whether he agrees with the loss or not) with 9 of his 13 career wins coming by knockout. He is an impressive striker that has a variety of weapons to go along with his legitimate fight ending power. The only real concern with O’Malley is his defensive wrestling has always been subpar and he is not very durable. However, he gets away with those things because his striking is that good and it takes a specific style of fighter to beat him. Moutinho is not that style of fighter. This is a layup fight for O’Malley and the only real question is whether he knocks him out in the first or second round. O’Malley by knockout is the official pick and he is one of the safest plays of the week despite not having any wrestling upside.
Irene Aldana vs. Yana Kunitskaya
Aldana, -115; Kunitskaya, -105
Aldana is coming off a main event loss to Holly Holm where she was largely dominated for five rounds. She is a high-volume striker that relies on her boxing and footwork to outwork her opponents. It is tough to make a case for her in this matchup after watching her get absolutely exposed against Holm which showed some clear flaws in her game. Her opponent, Kunitskaya, is coming off a dominant performance over Ketlen Vieira in February and is now on a two-fight win streak. She is a well-rounded fighter that has only lost to the top tier of this division. While I expect the striking to be competitive, Kunitskaya should have a clear strength advantage and be able to control Aldana in the clinch. Kunitskaya by decision is the official pick but I do not have much interest in this fight outside of some shares of Kunitskaya as she should be able to bank some control time in a victory.
Tai Tuivasa vs. Greg Hardy
Tuivasa, -130; Hardy, +110
Tuivasa is coming off a first-round knockout over Harry Hunsucker in March. He now has two straight back-to-back first-round knockouts after doing the same to Stefan Struve in October of last year. Tuivasa is not the most talented fighter, but he does have typical heavyweight power and 10 of his 11 career wins have come by knockout. He does not have many tools outside of his power and his defensive grappling and cardio have been exposed in the past. Meanwhile, Hardy is coming off a second-round knockout loss to Marcin Tybura his last time out in December, which snapped a two-fight win streak. That loss was not surprising as it was clear that Hardy needed to hurt Tybura early or he was going to be dominated in the wrestling and grappling and that is exactly what happened. So now we have two heavyweight fighters that both have power, but neither can wrestle or grapple much and they lack good cardio. This smells like a slopfest where both guys are gassed six minutes in, and it somehow grinds away to a close decision. I do slightly favor Hardy because he is a better point fighter with a good jab and will look to land more leg kicks. I also favor Hardy’s durability as well as Tuivasa has been knocked down in multiple fights in the past. Hardy by decision is the official pick but I would still get some exposure to both sides as an early knockout is live but there is definitely more risk of busting here.
Stephen Thompson vs. Gilbert Burns
Thompson, -155; Burns, +135
“Wonderboy” Thompson is coming off a dominant striking clinic over Geoff Neal in December. He is now on a two-fight win streak since getting knocked out by Anthony Pettis in March of 2019. It is no secret Thompson is one of the best strikers the welterweight division has ever seen. I find it hard to see Burns winning minutes in this matchup if the fight plays out at range. Thompson has made a career out of managing distance well and showing some solid takedown defense as well. However, as good as Thompson has been over his career, I am less confident in him than I used to be. I am not remotely saying he is washed or anything like that, but he is 38 years old and the knockout loss to Pettis is not a good look. Burns is coming off a third-round knockout loss to Kamaru Usman in February. He is an explosive fighter with legitimate power and a dangerous ground game. That said, I really think the only way he can win this fight is with an early finish. He may be able to land a takedown or two, but I doubt he can repeatedly take Thompson down and control him. In addition to Thompson’s clear striking advantage, he will have a significant cardio advantage as well. I suggest getting exposure to both sides as Burns does have some early finishing potential but more than likely we see a vintage Wonderboy performance where he outclasses him on the feet for 15 minutes. Thompson by decision is the official pick.
Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor
Poirier, -130; McGregor, +110
It is finally time. The trilogy concludes this weekend at UFC 264. Poirier got the better of McGregor in the rematch back at UFC 257 back in January. McGregor had some success early with his boxing approach. However, the leg kicks by Poirier were clearly adding up and he started to get his timing right toward the end of the first round as well. McGregor came in with a one-dimensional boxing approach and did not throw a single kick until 30 seconds left in round one. Additionally, he just ate Poirier’s leg kicks repeatedly without checking any or even acknowledging them until the second round. Leg kicks have always been an issue for McGregor, but it was even more evident in this fight. McGregor has been able to get away with eating leg kicks and subpar cardio in the past because of how good his striking skills are and his ability to land the big left hand. He likely needs to win by knockout inside the first two rounds and probably inside the first. The longer the fight gets extended, the more you have to favor Poirier as he has better cardio, will continue to land leg kicks and has the ability to wrestle when McGregor gets tired as well. This is a fight that you definitely need the winner of on DraftKings. I would approach it with targeting both sides across multiple lineups. McGregor can certainly win by knockout early but if he does not then Poirier likely finishes him again in the mid to late rounds. McGregor by knockout is the official pick.
