Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
There is plenty of NBA action on Sunday but we are going to focus on the six-game main slate this evening. There are plenty of injuries that we need to keep track of, while other teams are still missing players due to the COVID-19 protocols. Let’s make some sense of it all.
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Miami Heat @ Orlando Magic
MIA -7.5, total: 210
Bam Adebayo will miss his fourth consecutive game due to injury, which will keep Kelly Olynyk in the starting lineup. Over the three games with Adebayo sidelined, Olynyk is averaging an impressive 17.3 rebounding chances per game, good for the 13th-most in the league during that span. And with Bam off the floor this season, Olynyk’s rebounding rate is sitting at a solid 21%. He has been posting solid all-around stat lines during Bam’s absence and makes for a solid play once again at $6,100 on DraftKings. Of course, Jimmy Butler remains a fantastic option, as he’s been outstanding for a while now. With Adebayo off the floor this season, Butler is sporting a 29.8% usage rate to go along with a 21% rebounding rate and 26% assist rate, while averaging 1.56 fantasy points per minute in the split. And over the last two weeks with Bam off the court, Butler’s usage rate is hovering around 33%, while sporting a massive 27% assist rate. Goran Dragic remains a solid option at $6,200 on DraftKings, while Tyler Herro is in play at $5,500 but he’s really been struggling to shoot the ball as of late.
For Orlando, injuries just won’t slow down. Evan Fournier will miss his fourth straight game with a groin injury, while Aaron Gordon, who recently returned to the lineup, is out with an ankle injury. Terrence Ross, meanwhile, is questionable with a knee injury. Michael Carter-Williams hasn’t posted the highest-upside games as of late but at under $6,000, he’s a viable option, especially with Gordon and Fournier out. He’s obviously had to handle the ball a lot more with Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony sidelined. Over the last 10 games, MCW is averaging around 5.70 seconds per touch, the 11th-highest mark in the league during that span. And of course, Nikola Vucevic has as high of a floor as you can find in fantasy right now, keeping him in play against anyone, though this matchup is definitely better with Bam sidelined.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks
ATL -6, total: 223.5
There should be plenty of points scored in this game, as it features two underwhelming defensive units. For the Cavaliers, Kevin Love returned to the lineup for the first time since Dec. 27, logging just 10 minutes. He’ll surely be limited again tonight, making him an easy avoid. Larry Nance also returned to action and played 28 minutes against the Pelicans, scoring 20 fantasy points. At $4,900 on DK, Nance should be viewed as a fantastic value play on this slate, as he should be able to play 28-32 minutes with Love limited and Andre Drummond still not playing. Nance started at small forward last game but is primarily going to play the four in this game. I also still have interest in Collin Sexton at $7,800, especially against a Hawks defense that is surrendering the seventh-most real points per game to opposing point guards this season (25.3). Jarrett Allen is also still worth a look in tournaments, as he will still log 33-35 minutes in a solid matchup. Going against Clint Capela will ensure he will remain around the basket, as Capela is second in the NBA in paint touches per game this season (11.7). Allen, meanwhile, is averaging 9.8 paint touches per game on the year, good for the sixth-most in the league.
For Atlanta, you have to feel good about Trae Young here, especially at a way-too-cheap $9,300 price tag. He isn’t scoring as often in transition this season, averaging around four such points per game. However, this is definitely a spot where he could excel there, facing a Cavaliers unit that is surrendering the third-most transition points per game on the season (21.4). Teams are also getting out in transition 17.4% of the time against Cleveland, good for the second-highest clip in the league. Bogdan Bogdanovic is also becoming more interesting and is worth a shot as a value play in a GPP. He didn’t have a minutes restriction during Thursday’s game and while he only played 22 minutes, he just didn’t play well, shooting 2-for-12, while the Hawks won by 15 points. When on the floor, Bogdanovic is a fairly high-usage player. So far this season, 56% of his shot attempts have come off non-corner threes, which is a top-10 rate in the league. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are allowing a 39.9% field goal percentage off non-corner threes this season, the highest rate in all of basketball.
Meanwhile, John Collins’ price tag remains low, but unfortunately, so do his minutes. Collins hasn’t logged 30 minutes in any of his last four games, which has coincided with Danilo Gallinari seeing an uptick in minutes. That makes him a lot riskier than normal. Of course, Clint Capela remains the top option from this frontcourt, as he still leads the NBA in rebounding chances per game on the year (23.4). He is also tied for fifth in the league with 25 double-doubles.
Boston Celtics @ Houston Rockets
BOS -10.5, total: 224
The Rockets are on a 15-game losing streak and while no one is saying they are going to magically turn things around here, they’ll at least get some help. Victor Oladipo is not on the injury report ahead of this game, though John Wall, Christian Wood, Eric Gordon and Daniel House are all out. In his minutes of action with both Wall and Wood off the floor this season, Oladipo’s usage rate is at a massive 32.6%, while averaging over a fantasy point per minute. And suddenly with the emergence of Kevin Porter, he and Oladipo will dominate the usage for this team. At $5,000, Porter is still a very strong play here, while I don’t hate Justin Patton at $5,400.
The Celtics are strong favorites here, but they are obviously in a great spot. The minutes have been there for Kemba Walker lately, but I don’t love the $7,400 price tag, especially with Marcus Smart back and Boston being large road favorites. This game sets up very well for Jaylen Brown, who not only leads the team in transition points per game (6.4) but is second in all of basketball in that department. The Rockets, meanwhile, are coughing up 23.3 transition points per game on the year, the second-most in the league. Opponents are also getting out in transition 18.5% of the time against Houston, which is the highest rate in the league. And in a matchup as strong as this one, Jayson Tatum is certainly in play, though he isn’t my favorite option on this slate. Finally, if you are feeling really risky, Robert Williams has been so efficient lately, averaging 1.37 fantasy points per minute, while sporting a 32% rebounding rate during that span. If Boston runs away with this game, Williams could get to 23-25 minutes and smash at that price tag. His price has come up to $5,000, however, hence the risk.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Minnesota Timberwolves
POR -5, total: 235
Per usual, Damian Lillard should be viewed as one of the top plays of the slate. He trails only Luka Doncic in average time of possession per game (9.0 minutes), while his 6.28 average seconds per touch lead all qualified players in basketball. Look for him to have another stellar game against a bad Minnesota defense that ranks 23rd against superstars, 27th against crafty finishers, 25th against scorers and 22nd against primary ball handlers, according to our advanced DVP tool. I also really like the price tags on both Enes Kanter ($6,900) and Gary Trent ($4,900). We’ve seen Portland go small ball plenty of times this season but with Karl-Anthony Towns on the other side, this should be a game where Kanter can get to 30-32 minutes, which is very enticing at his price tag. Minnesota is surrendering the sixth-most points per game off putbacks this season (7.0), while no player in basketball is averaging more putback points per game than Kanter (4.1).
For Minnesota, it’s really just Towns or bust for me. I don’t feel great paying $7,000 for Anthony Edwards, who has attempted at least 20 shots in five of his last six games. I just think there are more trustworthy options around his price range. These teams just played Saturday and Towns got Portland for 34 points and 10 rebounds in 34 minutes.
Los Angeles Clippers @ New Orleans Pelicans
LAC -5.5, total: 236
After two underwhelming games, Zion Williamson has seen his price tag drop back to $8,600 on DraftKings, which makes him a great play, regardless of matchup. He is still nearly a lock to score 20 real points and if the assists, steals and blocks show up, Zion has 55-point fantasy upside. The Clippers don’t have anyone who can meet Williamson at the rim, who leads the NBA in points per game off cuts this season (4.8). With this game expected to be much closer than the Pelicans last game, you can bet that Zion will play much more than 18 minutes. Brandon Ingram is also just $7,900 on DraftKings and is coming off a very strong game against the Cavaliers. I’m not in love with the matchup for anyone on this team but the price tags are all extremely favorable.
For the Clippers, the price tags on both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are too low here, especially George at just $8,100. The Pelicans are bottom-three in defensive rating over the last 15 games, while they also rank dead last in the league against opposing superstars, according to our advanced DVP. Both Kawhi and George are always overlooked when both are active and because they both dominate the usage for the Clippers, they can both go for 50-plus fantasy points, especially in a strong matchup like this.
Toronto Raptors @ Chicago Bulls
CHI -3.5, total: 232
Once again, the Raptors are expected to be without Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby, keeping Kyle Lowry and Norman Powell in massive roles for this team. With Siakam and FVV off the floor this season, Lowry is sporting a healthy 27% usage rate and massive 29% assist rate, while averaging right around 1.20 fantasy points per minute. Over his last three games, Lowry is averaging a whopping 106 touches per game, as well as 8.4 minutes of possession per contest. This is a great matchup, facing a Bulls team that is fifth in the league in pace. They are also 28th against primary ball handlers on the season and Lowry is obviously handling the ball a ton as of late. And while he is coming off a down game, Powell is still worth a look at $7,400. His usage rate climbs up by around three% with Siakam and VanVleet off the floor this season, while he’s attempting around 20 shots per game as of late. Finally, Chris Boucher is getting the minutes again, a trend that we hope stays. He’s logged at least 30 minutes in each of his last three games, posting fantasy totals of 32, 50.2 and 38.2 during that span. He’s averaging 1.25 fantasy points per minute with VanVleet and Siakam off the floor this season and a pace-up game is perfect for a player like Boucher.
The matchup may look bad on paper for Zach LaVine but that Raptors defensive rating drops by over nine points with the three aforementioned players off the court this season. LaVine has become matchup-proof this season anyway but don’t let the numbers fool you — this isn’t a bad spot. Usually, I only like LaVine from the Bulls but I actually have some GPP interest in Lauri Markkanen, who is back in the lineup and playing 33-35 minutes each night. Markkanen leads the NBA in spot-up points per game this season (7.3), while the Raptors are coughing up 35.3 spot-up points per game, good for the second-most in all of basketball.
