MNF Plays: Best Props for Monday Night Football, Week 10

Week 10 of the NFL season ends with a critical matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos. After starting the season 3-1, the Bills have alternated wins and losses each of the past six weeks. They trail the Dolphins by one game in the AFC East and have a brutal upcoming schedule against the Jets (who beat them in Week 1), Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys and Chargers. The Broncos started 1-5, but have won their last two games to put themselves back in contention for a Wild Card spot. 

Here is my favorite prop bet for the Week 10 Monday night matchup.

Monday Night Football Best Bets

Khalil Shakir Over 35.5 Receiving Yards

(-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)

I was very high on Khalil Shakir entering the season. His speed and elusiveness seemed to serve this Bills offense well, complementing the outside explosiveness of wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. However, the development of rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid and consistent reliability of veteran tight end Dawson Knox put Shakir out of the rotation for most of the season. However, a wrist injury to Knox has put Shakir back on the field, and the results have followed. 

Per FTN Data, Shakir’s snap share has risen dramatically since Week 5, culminating with almost a 75% rate in Week 9 against the Bengals. Using our FTN Splits Tool, it’s clear that Shakir’s production is directly tethered to Knox’s absence. 

The final piece of this prop is the Broncos pass defense, which has struggled all season. They rank last in pass defense DVOA, including last against opposing WR1 and WR3s. While they have improved lately, they have mainly focused on limiting opposing WR1s with elite cornerback Pat Surtain. Shakir should find holes in this defense with Denver focusing on stifling Stefon Diggs. 

I’ll grab Shakir over 35.5 receiving yards as a safe target for quarterback Josh Allen, who needs to limit his turnovers in a critical MNF matchup against Denver. 

The Pick

Khalil Shakir Over 35.5 Receiving Yards