Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Adam TrautmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bills vs. Broncos
Right now, Adam Trautman’s receiving yards prop is set at 10.5 yards (-109/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 10.5 (-120) after it opened @ 11.5 (-118).
Pros
- An extreme passing game script is implied by the Broncos being a big -7.5-point underdog this week.
- Adam Trautman’s 72.5% Route Participation Rate this season indicates a substantial progression in his passing attack usage over last season’s 28.5% rate.
- Adam Trautman has accumulated significantly more air yards this year (15.0 per game) than he did last year (8.0 per game).
- The Bills defense has been torched for the 8th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (55.0) to tight ends this year.
Cons
- The model projects the Denver Broncos offensive scheme to tilt 1.5% more towards the ground game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
- The projections expect the Broncos as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 57.3% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The predictive model expects the Broncos to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.8 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game versus the Bills defense this year: fewest in football.
- Adam Trautman’s sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 80.6% to 63.6%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
16
Receiving Yards
16
Receiving Yards
