Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Adam Trautman from EV Insight

Adam TrautmanReceiving Yards

Right now, Adam Trautman’s receiving yards prop is set at 10.5 yards (-109/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 10.5 (-120) after it opened @ 11.5 (-118).

Pros

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Broncos being a big -7.5-point underdog this week.
Adam Trautman’s 72.5% Route Participation Rate this season indicates a substantial progression in his passing attack usage over last season’s 28.5% rate.
Adam Trautman has accumulated significantly more air yards this year (15.0 per game) than he did last year (8.0 per game).
The Bills defense has been torched for the 8th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (55.0) to tight ends this year.

Cons

The model projects the Denver Broncos offensive scheme to tilt 1.5% more towards the ground game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
The projections expect the Broncos as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 57.3% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Broncos to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.8 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game versus the Bills defense this year: fewest in football.
Adam Trautman’s sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 80.6% to 63.6%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
16
Receiving Yards