WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Week 6 of the NFL season starts with a potential mismatch with the 1-4 Denver Broncos visiting the 4-1 Kansas City Chiefs. The Broncos have allowed a league-high 181 points and are ranked dead-last in defensive DVOA. That is troubling against a Kansas City offense that despite their wide receiver struggles, still ranks sixth overall in offensive DVOA, including fifth in the passing game.
Each week, I will select my favorite prop bets on the Thursday night slate. You can find all our Week 6 player projections here at FTNBets. All of the available betting lines for this week’s opening matchup are available on our FTNBets Prop Shop, where you can easily shop around for the sportsbook with the best odds on each player or team.
Let’s take a look at my favorite prop for this week’s Thursday night matchup.
Week 6 Player Prop
Russell Wilson Over 19.5 Rushing Yards
(-114, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Russell Wilson reportedly lost 15 pounds in the offseason, and the rushing results have followed. Last season, Wilson averaged just 5.0 yards per carry on 55 attempts over 15 games played. This season, those numbers have risen to 6.6 yards per carry on 18 attempts through five games. Wilson is rushing at a higher rate and with more efficiency.
The Broncos face an enormous challenge traveling to Kansas City on a short week. The Chiefs pass defense ranks 10th-best per DVOA, and the Denver receivers struggled mightily to get open in their Week 5 home loss to the Jets. With lead running back Javonte Williams still battling a quad injury, Wilson scrambles have become an integral part of the Denver offense. He is averaging 23.8 rushing yards per game, with two games of 49 rushing yards or higher.
In fact, Wilson has taken to the ground much more often in these exact type of matchups over his 12-year career. Per our FTN Splits Tool, Wilson’s rushing yardage average easily beats this number in the 46 games he has been a betting underdog. He has averaged 28.0 rushing yards per game in those contests, which increases to 36.5 rushing yards per game when he has been an underdog by 7 points or more. In the two games where Wilson has been a double-digit underdog, he has rushed for an eye-popping 59.5 rushing yards per game.
Wilson is a competitor who will fight until the end to win every game. He is running more often and with more efficiency and is in a situation where he normally has gained excessive yardage on the ground.
Broncos Country? Let’s run.
