Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Wednesday 10/11)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins

Astros +105 @ Twins -125 – Total 8 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Cristian Javier easily cashed for us Tuesday afternoon, as he notched his fifth strikeout in the second inning. We’re headed back to Target Field Wednesday, as the Astros are one victory away from advancing to face the Texas Rangers in the American League Championship Series. 

2023 has been a tale of two halves for Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan — he posted a 3.70 ERA and 3.47 FIP in the first half of the season, followed by a 6.09 ERA and 5.43 FIP after the All-Star break. The 27-year-old was regularly hit hard in the second half, his 13.3% barrel% ranked third-highest in the Show (minimum 50 innings). The righty ranks in the 34th percentile overall in barrel percentage. Ryan faced the Astros twice, both starts came in the first half of the season, but Houston still posted an 8.10 ERA and 5.16 FIP against him. 

In the regular season, Houston posted the fifth-best wRC+ in baseball at 112. So far in the postseason, nobody has posted a better wRC+ than the ‘Stros 147. The Astros scored 5.12 runs a game in the regular season — which ranked fifth best. So far in the postseason Houston is averaging 5.67 runs a game, despite not having much luck with runners in scoring position. The Astros are slashing .194/.242/.290 with runners in scoring position through three playoff games. The Astros should throw six right-handed hitters at Ryan today, as he’s posted a 4.59 FIP against righties this season, allowing a .530 slugging percentage. 

The weather isn’t in our favor in Minny, with temps in the 50s and some wind blowing in. However, this isn’t a big number for the Houston offense. It’s always a plus when Frank Brank’s MLB Model agrees with our bet; as Frank projects the Astros to score four runs. Be sure to check the FTN Prop Shop to ensure you’re betting the best number available.

Bet

Astros TT Over 3.5 (-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)