Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
A.J. DillonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Falcons vs. Packers
Right now, A.J. Dillon’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects A.J. Dillon to notch 14.1 carries in this contest, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among RBs.
- THE BLITZ projects A.J. Dillon to be a more integral piece of his team’s running game this week (60.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (42.1% in games he has played).
- The Green Bay Packers O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
- Opposing squads have run for the 8th-most yards in the league (135 per game) vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Packers are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 8th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 38.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 3rd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Atlanta Falcons safeties grade out as the 9th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Rushing Yards
60
Rushing Yards
