Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for George Pickens from EV Insight

George PickensReceiving Yards

Right now, George Pickens’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 38.5 (-114) after it opened @ 41.5 (-114).

Pros

The Steelers have been the most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 75.4% pass rate.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 61.3 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects George Pickens to total 7.5 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects George Pickens to be much more involved in his offense’s passing offense this week (23.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (16.4% in games he has played).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 4th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
George Pickens has been among the weakest wide receivers in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 1st percentile.
The Cleveland Browns defense has yielded the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 126.0) vs. WRs since the start of last season.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.2%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (61.2%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards