Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Juwan Johnson from EV Insight

Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 26.5 (-110) after it opened @ 29.5 (-114).

Pros

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to accumulate 4.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among TEs.
Juwan Johnson has notched a whopping 38.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile among TEs.
Juwan Johnson’s 30.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 85th percentile for tight ends.
Juwan Johnson has been among the leading pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 32.0 yards per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.

Cons

The Saints are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 7th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints have played in the 7th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense performance when facing windier conditions in this game.
The Carolina Panthers defense has given up the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 36.0) vs. TEs since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards