Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jake FergusonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Cowboys vs. Jets
Right now, Jake Ferguson’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Dallas Cowboys will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Jake Ferguson to total 4.7 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile among TEs.
- THE BLITZ projects Jake Ferguson to be a more important option in his team’s passing offense this week (15.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (5.5% in games he has played).
- The New York Jets defense has surrendered the 6th-most receiving yards per game in the league (56.0) to TEs since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Cowboys are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 11th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Jake Ferguson’s ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 84.5% to 38.2%.
- Jake Ferguson’s pass-catching efficiency has diminished this season, compiling a measly 2.60 yards-per-target compared to a 8.07 figure last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards
38
Receiving Yards
