Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Durham SmytheReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Patriots vs. Dolphins
Right now, Durham Smythe’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-118).
The public has bet the OVER up to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 19.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.2% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 54.2 plays per game.
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
- Durham Smythe has been among the weakest pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a measly 13.0 yards per game while grading out in the 25th percentile among TEs.
- Durham Smythe’s possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 78.4% to 57.9%.
- The New England Patriots defense has given up the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 36.0) vs. tight ends since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards
26
Receiving Yards
