Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Durham Smythe from EV Insight

Durham SmytheReceiving Yards

Right now, Durham Smythe’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-118).

The public has bet the OVER up to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 19.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.2% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.

Cons

The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 54.2 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
Durham Smythe has been among the weakest pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a measly 13.0 yards per game while grading out in the 25th percentile among TEs.
Durham Smythe’s possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 78.4% to 57.9%.
The New England Patriots defense has given up the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 36.0) vs. tight ends since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards