Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zay FlowersReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Bengals vs. Ravens
Right now, Zay Flowers’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Zay Flowers to earn 7.4 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile among WRs.
- Zay Flowers has been among the best possession receivers in the NFL, completing a stellar 92.2% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 92nd percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- The Ravens have been the 7th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 55.1% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.22 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Zay Flowers to be a less important option in his team’s passing offense this week (23.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (50.0% in games he has played).
- The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has conceded the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.8%) to wideouts since the start of last season (63.8%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards
66
Receiving Yards
