The Dallas Cowboys will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Jake Ferguson to total 4.7 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Jake Ferguson to be a more important option in his team’s passing offense this week (15.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (5.5% in games he has played).
The New York Jets defense has surrendered the 6th-most receiving yards per game in the league (56.0) to TEs since the start of last season.
Cons
The Cowboys are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 11th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Jake Ferguson’s ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 84.5% to 38.2%.
Jake Ferguson’s pass-catching efficiency has diminished this season, compiling a measly 2.60 yards-per-target compared to a 8.07 figure last season.