Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Titans vs. Chargers
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 86.5 yards (-125/+105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 86.5 (-125) after it opened @ 79.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-most run-centric team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 41.0% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to accumulate 19.9 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
- Derrick Henry has earned 79.6% of his offense’s rush attempts since the start of last season, putting him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
- Derrick Henry has averaged 90.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in football among RBs (99th percentile).
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense owns the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, surrendering 5.49 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans offense as the 8th-worst paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.10 seconds per play.
Projection
THE BLITZ
86
Rushing Yards
86
Rushing Yards
