Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
George KittleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Rams vs. 49ers
Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The San Francisco 49ers have played in the most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which should result in higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense effectiveness when facing better conditions in this week’s game.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- George Kittle has run a route on 88.5% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 100th percentile among TEs.
- THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to accumulate 5.4 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among tight ends.
- George Kittle has put up a colossal 41.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 92nd percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The 49ers are a giant 7.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 8th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- George Kittle’s possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.7% to 51.0%.
- The Los Angeles Rams defense has given up the 6th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 37.0) versus TEs since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards
44
Receiving Yards
