NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
With the start of the 2023 NFL and fantasy football season around the corner, I will be going team by team recapping notable moves in the offseason, projecting their outlook for the upcoming league year. I’ll be using the FTN Prop Shop Tool to pick out my favorite bets with the best line available, today covering the Buffalo Bills. Stay up to date on the action placed by myself and the rest of the FTN crew in real-time with the FTN Bet Tracker. You can also follow @FTNAlerts on Twitter with push notifications turned on.
2023 NFL Team Roundup: Buffalo Bills
2022 Results
Record: 13-3; 1st in the AFC East
Season End: Lost 27-10 versus the Cincinnati Bengals in the Divisional Round
Buffalo Bills Offseason Summary
Draft
1.25: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
2.59: O’Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida
3.91: Dorian Williams, LB, Tulane
5.150: Justin Shorter, WR, Florida
7.230: Nick Broeker, G, Ole Miss
7.262: Alex Austin, CB, Oregon State
Dalton Kincaid, TE (1.25)
Dalton Kincaid’s “tight end” position labels him as more redundant behind a capable starter in Dawson Knox than an equivalent wide receiver draft pick might have been. But Kincaid is a relatively small move tight end who will likely run routes more than he blocks. Tight ends have steeper learning curves than most other positions, but Kincaid could hit his professional ceiling more quickly than more versatile prospects and find relevance in fantasy because of it.
O’Cyrus Torrence, G (2.59)
O’Cyrus Torrence and Connor McGovern have a better chance of replacing departing Pro Bowler Rodger Saffold than you might expect. Saffold belied that recognition with a modest 1.5% blown run block rate in 2022 and will be 35 years old for the 2023 season.
Justin Shorter, WR (5.150)
Justin Shorter is relatively unheralded as a Day 3 draft pick. But he has only unproven options in Khalil Shakir, Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield between him and a starting role in three-receiver sets.
Additions
Free agent signings: G Connor McGovern, WR Deonte Harty, EDGE Poona Ford, S Taylor Rapp, G David Edwards, WR Trent Sherfield, RB Damien Harris, T Brandon Shell, RB Latavius Murray, QB Kyle Allen, LB Travin Howard
Damien Harris, RB
Damien Harris may not return to his 2021 standard of 15 touchdown runs in as many starts next to a battering ram in Josh Allen at quarterback. But the former Patriots back is dramatically bigger than second-round incumbent James Cook (5-foot-11, 190 pounds, 26.5 BMI) and may see a preferred and fantasy-friendly red zone role.
Connor McGovern is one of the team’s two major offensive line additions that aim to improve on a 71% run block win rate that was just 22nd in football.
Deonte Harty, WR
Deonte Harty earned his 2019 All-Pro award as a punt and kick returner. But he has also finished top five among receivers with 50 or more catches with 6.67 average yards after the catch the last four seasons and increased his offensive ceiling by pairing with Josh Allen.
Departures
LB Tremaine Edmunds, G Rodger Saffold, RB Taiwan Jones, WR Jake Kumerow, G Bobby Hart, T Justin Murray, TE Tommy Sweeney, WR Cole Beasley, QB Case Keenum, RB Devin Singletary, G Greg Van Roten, WR Jamison Crowder, WR Isaiah McKenzie, S Jaquan Johnson
Devin Singletary, RB
Devin Singletary was a frequent public punching bag for the Bills’ often scheme-related rushing problems. But he bested a 20.0% broken tackle rate in three of his four seasons and could be a bigger loss than many expect.
Isaiah McKenzie, WR
Isaiah McKenzie never realized the offensive potential his speed offered him, but the departures of him and teammate Jamison Crowder open up 78 targets and a primary slot receiver role when the Bills play 11 personnel.
Leslie Frazier, DC
Leslie Frazier voluntarily left his defensive coordinator position more than a month after the end of the season. That timing fans speculation of some team turmoil — even if Frazier dissipated it with an interview that detailed his efforts to become a head coach. Sean McDermott came up as a defensive coordinator and seems as equipped as any head coach to oversee a defense without a coordinator. But Frazier did lead his defense to top 12 finishes in DVOA the last five seasons.
Schedule
Week 1 – @ New York Jets (Bills -1.5)
Week 2 – Las Vegas Raiders
Week 3 – @ Washington Commanders
Week 4 – Miami Dolphins
Week 5 – Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 6 – New York Giants
Week 7 – @ New England Patriots
Week 8 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 9 – @ Cincinnati Bengals
Week 10 – Denver Broncos
Week 11 – New York Jets
Week 12 – @ Philadelphia Eagles
Week 13 – BYE
Week 14 – Kansas City Chiefs
Week 15 – Dallas Cowboys
Week 16 – @ Los Angeles Chargers
Week 17 – Dallas Cowboys
Week 18 – Miami Dolphins
2023 Future Odds
DraftKings Wins Over/Under: 10.5 (-140/+115)
BetMGM/Caesars: To Win AFC East (+125)
The Bills were eliminated in the Divisional Round in the 2022 season for a second straight season, losing 27-10 to the Bengals with home-field advantage. It was their fourth consecutive playoff appearance, and fifth in the last five seasons since breaking their 17-year drought in 2017. They snuck in as a Wild Card team in 2019, finishing second to Tom Brady and the Patriots in the AFC East. Since Brady’s departure, the Bills have taken over the AFC East, winning the division in each of the last three seasons. Although the division has gotten stronger with Aaron Rodgers joining the fray, I still like them at plus odds to repeat as champions in 2023. There’s no discount on their win total and for good reason. The line is set at 10.5 wins with heavy juice to the over. The last Buffalo didn’t clear this mark was back in 2019 when they finished 10-6 in a 16-game regular season.
Best Bets
BetMGM: To Win AFC (+500)
DraftKings/FanDuel/BetMGM/Caesars/Unibet/Second-Chance Bet: To Win Super Bowl (+900)
BetMGM: Best Regular Season Record (+1000)
Caesars: Most Points Scored: (+1000)
Over the last three seasons, the Bills have played in two Conference Championship games, never quite getting over the hump and making it to the Super Bowl. Their consistency has been remarkable, joining the Chiefs as the only teams in the AFC to make the Divisional Round in each of the past three seasons. During that stretch, Kansas City has defeated Buffalo both times the two have squared off in the postseason, including a thrilling overtime victory in 2021. Buffalo got their redemption last season, going on the road and defeating the eventual Super Bowl champions 24-20 in their most recent matchup. Had it not been for the cancellation of their Week 17 game against Cincinnati, there’s a chance the 2022 postseason could’ve looked a lot different, with a chance the Bills could have held on to the 1 seed and a first-round bye. I like backing Buffalo to finally put everything together in 2023, fishing with the best regular season record (+1000) and winning both the AFC Conference (+500) and the Super Bowl (+900). Their success will largely be dependent on their offense, which has added intriguing pieces this offseason and could be the highest-scoring unit in the league. They ranked second in points per game last season (28.4) and are the only team to finish as a top-three scoring offense in each of the past four seasons.
FanDuel: Josh Allen Over 4150.5 Passing Yards (-112)
FanDuel: Josh Allen Most Passing Yards AFC East (-105)
DraftKings: Josh Allen MVP (+850)
Josh Allen had a tail of two halves last season before and after spraining his UCL. He led the MVP race pre-injury, averaging 314 yards through the air in his first seven games, on pace for over 5,300 passing yards (5,338). Although his production dropped off by nearly 80 passing yards in his last nine games (-79.5), Allen still finished with 4,283 passing yards on the season, despite missing a game in Week 17. With a healthy offseason, Allen should have no problem throwing clearing his 4,150.5 passing yard prop as he’s done in each of the last three seasons. If he can get back to his pre-injury form, Allen is worth MVP consideration, finishing top five in the race three years in a row. Had it not been for the injury, Allen may have won the award last season, pacing to become the first player to account for 6,000 yards of total offense. In Weeks 1-8, Allen was averaging 357.71 combined passing and rushing yards, which would have been the most all-time by any player in a season.
