Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!
Today, MLBdream provides his picks.
You can check out the full card at the Bet Tracker. If you’re not subscribed, join now and get 20% off using promo code DREAM.
Best MLB Bets and Picks Today
Colorado Rockies @ Tampa Bay Rays
Rockies +190 @ Rays -230 – Total 8.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Peter Lambert is making his eighth start of the season Thursday after moving from the Rockies pen into the rotation. The 26-year-old has posted a 5.02 ERA in just over 66 innings this season, and the advanced stats aren’t showing positive regression. Lambert is primarily a four-pitch pitcher, only one of the righty’s offerings has a slugging percentage below .450, as his slider carries a .449 slugging percentage. Both his fastball and changeup sit just under .500. Lambert’s expected stats aren’t much better, as his savant page is covered in blue.
Things won’t get easier for Bud Black and the Rockies after he makes a call to the pen. The Colorado bullpen has the third-highest ERA at 5.15 and their 4.54 FIP ranks fifth worst. The Rockies pen has been even worse lately – posting a 9.08 ERA, and 5.31 SIERA, over the last 14 days, both ranking dead-last in MLB. Their 1.75 bullpen WHIP is somehow only the third-worst over that stretch.
The Rays found themselves in a bit of a funk, but it looks like the offense is snapping out of it. Tampa has still posted the second-highest wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days at 136. Ranking top-five or better in runs, on-base-percentage, and slugging percentage in that period. They’ve been even better over the last 14 days, as they’re slashing .307/.373/.474. Overall, the Rays average the fourth-most runs per game at 5.37. Only the Dodgers have been more profitable cashing team total overs in 2023.
I’m projecting Lambert to go about five innings Thursday and allow three or four runs before giving way to the Rockies bullpen. Frank Brank’s MLB Model likes Tampa today as well, as he has the Rays projected for 4.9 runs. Use the FTN Prop Shop to ensure you’re betting the best number available.
Bet
Rays TT Over 4.5 (-130, DraftKings Sportsbook)
