Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Wednesday 8/23)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Boston Red Sox @ Houston Astros 

Red Sox -105 @ Astros -115 – Total 9 (BetMGM)

Chris Sale has only made 13 starts this season due to a couple different injuries. He’s making his third start since his most recent activation from the Injured List. The southpaw’s chase and strikeout rates have been solid this season, but batters have been making more contact on pitches in the zone over his last two appearances. An even more troubling sign is the 34-year-old’s low velocity in his most recent outing against the Nationals. His fastball velocity sat at 91.6 MPH, about three MPH slower than his season average (image below via BaseballSavant). It’s tough to see Sale being effective against this Astros club’ without him being in top form. Sale’s best two strikeout pitches are his fastball and slider – according to Alex Chamberlain’s Pitch Leaderboard, both pitches are performing better than they should, with both having a lower deserved K% than their actual K%. 

The Astros enter Wednesday with the third-lowest strikeout percentage against southpaws at 19.1%.  I mentioned Sale’s slider above, the Astros have the third-lowest strikeout percentage against that pitch at 24.4%. Which is well below the league average K% against sliders, which sits at 28.1%. Houston’s 87.6% zone-contact percentage ranks fourth highest in the show and their whiff percentage is one of the lowest. Not only are the Astros disciplined but they’ve been raking against lefties for a couple months now, leading the majors in a number of categories. 

I don’t expect Sale to be a full go, and Frank Brank’s MLB Model agrees, as he has Sale projected for 4.64 innings pitched and 4.55 strikeouts. Use the FTN Prop Shop to ensure you’re betting the best number available.

Bets

Chris Sale Under 5.5 K’s (-120, BetMGM)