NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
With the start of the 2023 NFL season around the corner, I will be going team by team recapping notable moves in the offseason, projecting their outlook for the upcoming league year. I’ll be using the FTN Prop Shop to pick out my favorite bets with the best line available, today covering the Los Angeles Chargers. Stay up to date on the action placed by myself and the rest of the FTN crew in real-time with the FTN Bet Tracker. You can also follow @FTNAlerts on Twitter with push notifications turned on.
2023 NFL Team Roundup: Los Angeles Chargers
2022 Results
Record: 10-7; 2nd in the AFC West
Season End: Lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars, 31-30, eliminated in the Wild Card Round
Los Angeles Chargers Offseason Summary
Draft
1.21: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
2.55: Tuli Tuipulotu, EDGE, USC
3.85: Daiyan Henley, LB, Washington State
4.125: Derius Davis, WR/KR, TCU
5.156: Jordan McFadden, G, Clemson
6.200: Scott Matlock, DL, Boise State
7.239: Max Duggan, QB, TCU
Quentin Johnston, WR (1.21)
With an aging wide receiver core that has struggled to stay healthy, the Chargers used their first-round selection on TCU product Quentin Johnston (No. 21), the second receiver drafted in the 2023 class. Johnston flashed as a true freshman in 2020, recording the highest single-season yards per catch (22.1) by a first-year player in Big 12 history. In his second season, Johnston set a school record, averaging 22.1 yards per catch, the most by any player in a single season. He was even better as a junior last season, finishing second in the nation in yards after catch per reception (8.9). Johnson received first-team All-Big 12 honors for a second year in a row, leading his team in targets (98), receptions (60), receiving yards (1,069), and receiving touchdowns (6). He also won the College Football Playoff Semifinal Offensive MVP award, catching 6 passes for 161 yards and a touchdown against Michigan to help TCU advance into the National Championship.
Derius Davis, WR (4.125)
The Chargers circled back to the wide receiver position on Day 3, selecting another Horned Frog, Derius Davis, in the fourth round (No. 125). In his final season as a senior, Davis finished second on the team in targets (61) receptions (42), and receiving touchdowns (5), behind Quentin Johnston. He was dynamic on special teams, receiving first Team tll-American honors as a punt returner and named the Big 12 Special Teams Player of the Year in 2022. Davis also won the Jet Award, as the top return specialist in the nation. He was one of only five players with two punt return touchdowns last season and became TCU’s all-time leader in punt return touchdowns (5). His six career special teams touchdowns are the most by any player, tied with 2022 USFL MVP and current Dallas Cowboy, KaVontae Turpin.
Max Duggan, QB (7.239)
In the seventh round (No.239), the Chargers completed the shower narrative, pairing TCU quarterback Max Duggan with his two wide receivers. Duggan was the team’s starter from 2019 to 2021, before losing the job to Chandler Morris at the start of the 2022 season. Duggan’s role as the backup didn’t last long after Morris suffered a knee injury in the season opener. Duggan had a career year last season, throwing for 3,698 yards and 32 touchdowns while leading the Horned Frogs to their first-ever National Championship game. He was named the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year in 2022 and became the first player in school history to receive the Davey O’Brien Award and the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award.
Additions
Free agent signings: LB Eric Kendricks, DT Nick Williams
Kellen Moore, OC
After letting go of Joe Lombardi, the Chargers hired one of the hottest names on the market offense in 33-year-old playcalling savant Kellen Moore. Since Moore took over as the offensive coordinator for Dallas in 2019, the Cowboys offense has ranked second in yards (391) and points (27.7) per game, over the past four seasons. Moore should help improve Justin Herbert‘s abysmal 6.4-yard average depth of target last season, trailing only Matt Ryan as the second lowest among all signal callers with at least 400 dropbacks. In comparison, Dak Prescott’s had an 8.2-yard aDOT in 2022, which ranked inside the top 10.
Eric Kendricks, LB
After finishing bottom five in rushing defense in back-to-back seasons, the Chargers signed former girst-team All-Pro and Pro Bowler linebacker Eric Kendricks to a two-year, $13.25M contract to help strengthen their core. After recording 83 tackles as a rookie in 2015, Kendricks has logged 100-plus tackles in seven-straight seasons, the second-longest active streak in the NFL. During his eight-year stint with Minnesota, Kendricks started 113-of-117 regular-season games, totaling 919 tackles, 15 sacks, 54 tackles for loss, 51 pass breakups, four forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries, and two interceptions that were both returned for a touchdown.
Departures
LB Drue Tranquill, G Matt Feiler, WR DeAndre Carter, LB Troy Reeder, Christian Covington, EDGE Joe Gaziano, OT Storm Norton, DT Breiden Fehoko
Drue Tranquill, LB
Drue Tranquill had the best season of his career in 2022, leading the Chargers in tackles (146) to go along with five sacks and four passes defended.
Matt Feiler, G
After signing with the Chargers in 2021, Matt Feiler was immediately slotted into the starting lineup, appearing in 33 pf 34 regular season games. He struggled in protection last season, allowing 38 quarterback pressures and five sacks. Feiler’s 54.6 PFF grade ranked 61st at the position.
Schedule
Week 1 – Miami Dolphins (Chargers +3)
Week 2 – @ Tennessee Titans
Week 3 – @ Minnesota Vikings
Week 4 – Las Vegas Raiders
Week 5 – BYE
Week 6 – Dallas Cowboys
Week 7 – @ Kansas City Chiefs
Week 8 – Chicago Bears
Week 9 – @ New York Jets
Week 10 – Detroit
Week 11 – Green Bay Packers
Week 12 – Baltimore Ravens
Week 13 – @ New England Patriots
Week 14 – Denver Broncos
Week 15 – @ Las Vegas Raiders
Week 16 – Buffalo Bills
Week 17 – @ Denver Broncos
Week 18 – Kansas City Chiefs
Futures Odds
Unibet/Second-Chance Bet: Wins Over/Under: 9.5 (-115/-105)
AFC West odds: +340
The Chargers will be looking for redemption in 2023, looking to amend their heartbreaking loss in the playoffs when they blew a 27-point lead. As is the case every year, the expectations are high in LA, led by one of the most talented young quarterbacks in the league. The roster remains intact, to win now, but could see a major shake-up next offseason once the team settles on a new contract for Justin Herbert. Even in an injury-riddled 2022 season, the Chargers managed to eke out double-digit victories, so I like taking the over on 9.5 wins. 10-plus wins still may not be enough to top the defending AFC West and Super Bowl champion Chiefs, who have won the divisional title in seven straight seasons dating back to 2016.
Chargers Best Bets for 2023
DraftKings Sportsbook: Chargers and Chiefs Top 2 in Division (+105)
Unibet/Second-Chance Bet: To Make the Playoffs (+100)
The AFC West has run through Kansas City, but the Chargers appear to be firmly entrenched as the second-best team in the division. While the Broncos appear to have gotten better with the addition of Sean Payton, the Raiders are trending in the wrong direction without a solidified starting quarterback in Week 1. Both teams look to be facing an uphill battle to finish top two in the division. Like last season, if the Chargers can stay within striking range of the Chiefs, they do not need to win the division to clinch a playoff berth.
DraftKings/BetMGM: Justin Herbert Over 29.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)
FanDuel: Justin Herbert Most Passing Yards (+700)
Unibet/Second-Chance Bet: Justin Herbert Most Passing Touchdowns (+800)
Justin Herbert finished second in the league in pass attempts (699) and passing yards (4,753) in 2022, second in both categories, despite not having his top two pass catchers in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams available at the same time for the most of the season. There was no shortage of passing volume, however, Herbert threw for a career-low 25 touchdowns, after logging over 30 touchdowns in each of his first two seasons. He posted a 3.6% touchdown rate, compared to his 5.4% rate in 2020-2021. I expect this number to regress, especially with the addition of Kellen Moore whose offense has ranked top six in scoring in three out of four seasons as Dallas’s play caller. Since taking over as the offensive coordinator, Moore’s passing offense ranked outside the top eight just once, when Dak Prescott missed the majority of the season. First-round wide receiver Quentin Johnston should also help elevate the aerial attack, posing another threat in the red zone.
BetMGM: Keenan Allen Most Receptions in the League (+3000)
DraftKings/BetMGM: Keenan Allen Over 875.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Keenan Allen had trouble staying on the field early in his career but has stayed relatively healthy, missing just two games in the last five seasons before 2022. Unfortunately, Allen didn’t have the same luck this past season, tweaking his hamstring in the season opener. He missed the next five games, before returning in Week 7, but ended up reaggravating his hamstring. Allen would miss the next two games, before making a second comeback in Week 11. In the last eight weeks of the season, Allen went on a tear, hauling in a league-high 60 receptions with the fifth-most receiving yards (689) and fourth-most receiving touchdowns (4) during that stretch. In eight games with at least a 65% snap share, Allen averaged 10.8 targets, 9.0 receptions and 85.5 receiving yards. Extrapolated over a 17-game season, Allen would have registered 182.8 total targets, trailing only Justin Jefferson in 2022, and 153 receptions, a new single-season record. He was also on pace for 1,454 receiving yards, which would have been the sixth most by any player last season.
BetMGM: Mike Williams Over 799.5 Receiving Yards
Mike Williams had a strong start to the season in 2022, operating as the Chargers’ WR1 with Keenan Allen limited or out of the lineup. He eclipsed 100 receiving yards in three of his first five games, with two top-10 finishes at the position. In Keenan Allen’s first game back in Week 7, Williams was on his way to another strong outing, catching seven passes on nine targets for 86 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, things took a turn for the worse late in the game, when Williams landed awkwardly on his ankle and suffered a brutal sprain. He missed the next two games, before returning to the lineup in Week 11. Williams clearly wasn’t healthy and re-injured his ankle on the first drive. After another two weeks off, Williams came back in dominant fashion, catching all six passes that came his way for 116 yards and a touchdown. Just when it looked like the Chargers were finally getting healthy, Williams fractured his back in a meaningless Week 18 game which would ultimately put an end to his season. On the season, Williams averaged 77.09 receiving yards when he logged 30 or more snaps. Over 17 games, Williams was on pace for 1,310.53 receiving yards, smashing his prop set at 799.5.
BetMGM: Quentin Johnston Over 574.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
FanDuel: Quentin Johnston Most Rookie Receiving Yards (+550)
Quentin Johnston was one of four wide receivers drafted in the first round, but he has significantly longer odds to record the most receiving yards as a rookie than Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jordan Addison, who were selected immediately ahead of him. Despite facing difficult competition for targets in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, Johnston is tied to one of the pass-heaviest offenses in the league, led by the best quarterback relative to the other rookie receivers with first-round capital. Johnston should see plenty of opportunities in year one and receive a boost if Allen and/or Williams were to miss time. Last season, the Chargers’ top four pass catchers all cleared 720 receiving yards.
