Best MLB Bets Today - Free (Thursday 7/20)

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Today, MLBdream provides his picks.

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Chicago White Sox @ New York Mets

White Sox +130 @ Mets -155 – Total 9 (BetMGM)

We’re headed to Citi Field Thursday and I’ve found an edge in the strikeout market, with the Mets hosting the White Sox. I’m going to keep this brief since this number is on the move this morning.

Michael Kopech was placed on the IL and missed a few starts due to a shoulder injury. He wasn’t able to make it out of the first inning in his first start back, as he simply couldn’t find the strike zone. The 27-year-old posted a single-digit swinging-strike percentage for the third time in his last four starts, as he walked four batters and didn’t record a single K. Kopech has a negative K-BB% over that stretch at -11.1%. His walk percentage is almost twice as high as his strikeout percentage, as we wait for books to post a walk prop. Kopech clearly doesn’t look 100%, as you can see by his lost velocity (image below via BaseballSavant). Even if Kopech’s velocity ticks up, he won’t be able to pitch deep into this one, as this is his second start since June 27, and he only tossed 38 pitches in his first start after the All-Star break.

At the dish, the Mets enter play Thursday with the fourth-lowest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season at 20.8%. So while it is a fade of Kopech, it comes against a disciplined club that isn’t afraid to take their walks.

I’m projecting Kopech to pitch about four innings Thursday if he’s healthy enough to make it that deep. Frank Brank’s Strikeout Model agrees with this under; as Frank projects the White Sox starter for 3.89 punchouts. I mentioned this prop has been on the move, I personally bet -120 and wouldn’t bet it at worse than -145. As always, be sure to use the FTN Prop Shop to make sure you’re betting the best number available.