Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Week 16 of this NFL season is fun, with 11 games Saturday, three Sunday and one Monday. If you were circling exciting slates this preseason, you would have highlighted, underlined and starred Sunday’s Christmas Day slate, but it hasn’t played out that way.
While five of the six teams playing Sunday have underperformed compared to their preseason expectations, I love the value in Miami, as the semi-hot Packers (6-8) travel to South Florida to face the Dolphins (8-6), losers of three straight road games. In a matchup with the highest projected point total this week (O/U is 50), you won’t have to wait long on Sunday to find the best SGP value of the day.
Each week in this space, we’re picking out our favorite same-game parlay for the Sunday action to get in on the betting action.
DraftKings NFL Week 16 Same Game Parlay
Tyreek Hill Over 84.5 Receiving Yards
Aaron Jones Under 69.5 Rushing Yards
Miami Dolphins -3.5
+330, DraftKings Sportsbook
This offseason, the Dolphins’ acquisition of Tyreek Hill excited Dolphins fans, though a statistical downgrade seemed likely. Instead, through 14 games, Hill is second in targets (152), receptions (109) and receiving yardage (1,529), behind only Justin Jefferson. In short: Many of us got it wrong. The Dolphins’ All-Pro has surpassed the 84.5-yard threshold in eight of his 14 games this season, and I like him to make it nine on Sunday against a vulnerable Packers secondary. On paper, the Packers are one of the better defenses against opposing wide receivers, allowing only 135 yards a game to opposing wideouts. However, take a look at what they’ve allowed to these WR1-type alphas:
| Player (Week) | Receptions – Receiving Yards – Touchdowns |
| Justin Jefferson (Week 1) | 9 – 184 – 2 |
| Stefon Diggs (Week 8) | 6 – 108 – 1 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (Week 9) | 4 – 55 – 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb (Week 10) | 11 – 150 – 2 |
Given the Packers susceptibility to opposing running backs, look for the Dolphins to incorporate a bit more play-action to create more one-on-one matchups for Hill. To attack and expose this trend, I expect Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa to target Tyreek Hill around nine times (10.1 YPT) and smash this over.
The Dolphins score points (24.6 PPG), and this week should be no different, given the Packers defensive’ susceptibility to the run and big-play wideouts.
Meanwhile, Aaron Jones has ceded more and more work to AJ Dillon over the past few weeks, and doctors cleared Dillon from the concussion protocol Tuesday. Aside from the usage competition, Jones loses touches in contests where the Packers play from behind. In Green Bay’s last three losses, Jones has not accumulated more than 43 yards in any of those contests. The Dolphins’ strength on defense is stopping the run, and they should force Rodgers to throw the ball, especially in the second half. Easy under.
The Dolphins struggled out west against the 49ers and Chargers, but played on par with the Bills last Saturday. At home this season, the Dolphins are 3-1 as betting favorites, and I like that to continue this week. The Dolphins are the better team and have nearly a 48-hour rest advantage over the Packers, who played Monday night. At this time of year, that’s important. Given all of the factors opposing the Packers this week (struggles against opposing WR1, short week, travel), I love the Dolphins to cover the -3.5 this week in a convincing fashion. Prediction: Dolphins win 30-20.
