NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Noah FantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Chiefs vs. Seahawks
Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 28.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 135.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to accumulate 5.5 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- The Seattle Seahawks have run the 6th-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 54.1 plays per game.
- Noah Fant has been much less involved in his team’s pass attack this season (12.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (18.5%).
- Noah Fant has posted far fewer air yards this year (24.0 per game) than he did last year (35.0 per game).
- Noah Fant has compiled quite a few less receiving yards per game (29.0) this season than he did last season (41.0).
- The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has yielded the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (67.9%) versus tight ends this year (67.9%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards
35
Receiving Yards
