Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Noah Fant from EV Insight

Noah FantReceiving Yards

Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 28.5 (-114).

Pros

The Seahawks are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 135.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to accumulate 5.5 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among TEs.

Cons

The Seattle Seahawks have run the 6th-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 54.1 plays per game.
Noah Fant has been much less involved in his team’s pass attack this season (12.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (18.5%).
Noah Fant has posted far fewer air yards this year (24.0 per game) than he did last year (35.0 per game).
Noah Fant has compiled quite a few less receiving yards per game (29.0) this season than he did last season (41.0).
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has yielded the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (67.9%) versus tight ends this year (67.9%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards