Week 4 NFL Player Props of the Week

With Week 4 of the NFL season off to an inauspicious start after the rough injury we saw Thursday, we’re on to the Sunday slate and some of my favorite bets of the Week 4 action.

As we get ready for a full day of games, I picked out some of my favorite individual player props for Week 4.

Diontae Johnson Over 5.5 Receptions

(-105, BetMGM)

Death, Taxes and Diontae Johnson producing with lackluster quarterback performance. I had originally crossed this game off, with the Jets now starting Zack Wilson, but I think we are getting a very solid number. Johnson has cleared 5.5 receptions in all three games this season, seeing 10, 11 and 12 targets. While they had played against some fairly strong opponents in that span, they now get the Jets, who currently grade out 32nd in pass defense DVOA. Johnson currently sits fourth in the NFL with a 31% target share, Chase Claypool hasn’t been efficient in his new role, and George Pickens is running routes but barely being targeted. Johnson is clearly the trusted target in this offense, I expect him to continue to demand extremely high volume despite the matchup. He sits fourth in the NFL in air yards, and his aDOT has actually increased this season — he’s quietly having another impressive season. 

Travis Etienne Over 17.5 Receiving Yards

(-113, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Who would have guessed that we would be through Week 3, and the Jaguars still wouldn’t really have been in a negative gamescript so far. What that means is that they have been able rely more on James Robinson, the team’s lead back. The 6.5-point spread this week currently shows the Eagles are expected to win this one, meaning more passing game work for the running backs, which means Travis Etienne. Even without a favorable gamescript, he’s still recorded 30, 38 and 17 receiving yards this season, with a catch of at least 14 yards in all three games. Not only is he there for your basic RB dumpoffs, he’s also running legitimate routes against linebackers, a mismatch Trevor Lawrence will want to exploit. The Eagles have allowed the eighth-most receptions to backs this year, and outside corners Darius Slay and James Bradberry present tougher matchups. This will be sweaty because Robinson is still the lead back, but I think this game sets up very well for the young running-back to get involved. 

Drake London Longest Reception Over 22.5 Yards

(-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Drake London has been one of the most impressive rookies this season. While the Falcons are — and will remain — a run-first team, I think there is plenty of opportunity to cash this player prop. Deciding between longest reception and yards was tough, but I like just needing one catch to cash this player prop. London is 2-for-3 on this number so far, with his one miss coming on the hook at 22 yards. He currently leads all receivers (not just rookies) in target share sitting at 39%. His 2.93 YPRR and 10.3-yard aDOT are very encouraging signs, and I expect the rookie to continue performing at a high level. He has very little target competition, with Olamide Zaccheaus, KhaDarel Hodge and Bryan Edwards at WR. Kyle Pitts has also gotten off to a lackluster start, but even if he continues to get more involved, that should open up downfield looks for London.