NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Damien HarrisRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Packers vs. Patriots
Right now, Damien Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (+100) after it opened @ 48.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-most run-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 41.1% run rate.
- Damien Harris has been given 51.5% of his team’s rush attempts this year, ranking in the 84th percentile among running backs.
- The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
- Damien Harris has averaged 58.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the league among running backs (89th percentile).
- The Green Bay Packers defense has produced the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, surrendering 4.88 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The New England Patriots will be starting backup QB Brian Hoyer in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Patriots are a giant 9.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New England Patriots have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 56.6 plays per game.
- The Green Bay Packers linebackers grade out as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Rushing Yards
53
Rushing Yards
