Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dalton Schultz from EV Insight

Dalton SchultzReceiving Yards

Right now, Dalton Schultz’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-106/-129).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (-129) after it opened @ 32.5 (-110).

Pros

The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to start backup quarterback Cooper Rush in this week’s game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.45 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Dalton Schultz has run a route on 78.0% of his team’s dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 90th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Dalton Schultz to garner 6.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 59.3% pass rate.
Dalton Schultz’s receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 76.3% to 70.6%.
Dalton Schultz’s pass-catching effectiveness has tailed off this year, notching a measly 6.12 yards-per-target vs a 8.14 figure last year.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.53 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards