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Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
Under 8.5 runs -114 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Since they are NL West rivals, the Padres and the Dodgers have played each other 13 times already this season. Over these 13 games, the Padres have not been able to figure out how to beat Los Angeles. The Dodgers beat the Padres 9-4 the last time they played each other, and they are now 10-3 against San Diego this season.
The Dodgers will clinch the NL West in the near future, but the Padres must be nervous about their playoff chances. The Padres have a slight half-game lead over the Phillies for the second spot in the NL Wild Card, and they have a slim 3-game lead over the Brewers.
Only one of the Padres’ three wins against Los Angeles this season has come in San Diego, but if they want to make the playoffs, the Padres need to turn the tide. Mike Clevinger will make the start for San Diego while Dustin May toes the slab for Los Angeles.
In 17 starts this season, Clevinger is 5-6 with a 3.96 ERA, a 4.47 FIP and a 1.18 WHIP. This will be the third time Clevinger faces the Dodgers this season, but both of those starts were in LA, including his last start. In those two starts, Clevinger allowed 10 runs on 11 hits in just 7.2 innings of work. The Dodgers won both of those games.
Despite the Dodgers’ success against Clevinger this season, they have yet to face him at home. In San Diego this year, Clevinger has a 2.97 ERA, a .213 batting average against, a 4.52 FIP and a 1.08 WHIP. He strikes out more batters at home, he walks fewer batters, and he leaves more runners on base. The under is 3-0 in his last three home starts as well.
Dustin May will make his fourth start of the season for the Dodgers. Since coming back from injury, May has thrown just 16 innings, and five of them were against San Diego at home in his last start. The Padres manufactured six runs off May on just four hits, but May walked five batters, giving the Padres an opportunity to win, which they did.
I expect May to be much better this time around. May was one of the best young pitchers in the MLB before his injury, and he is due for a comeback. His first two starts of the season were great, but they were against a horrible Marlins offense. The Padres offense, while great on paper, has not been overly amazing this season. They got to May last week, but I do not see them getting to him again.
The matchup between these two teams went over this total the last two times they played, but I expect a different story here. May knows what to expect from this Padres lineup, and Clevinger has been better at home this season. I have this game priced at O/U 8 -110, so there is value at O/U 8.5 -115.
Bet: Padres/Dodgers UNDER 8.5 Runs -115
