Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Rex BurkheadRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Texans vs. Colts
Right now, Rex Burkhead’s rushing yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 20.5 (-110) after it opened @ 20.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 8th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 36.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Indianapolis Colts linebackers rank as the best unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
22
Rushing Yards
22
Rushing Yards
